＂Saving the property market＂ is actually ＂ensuring economic growth＂
■ Policy interpretation
Following the increase in subsidies for grain farmers on Monday, the increase in the minimum purchase price of grain in 2009, and the increase in the export tax rebate rate for labor-intensive commodities such as textiles and clothing on Tuesday, the state once again introduced ten measures to expand consumption and stimulate domestic demand on Wednesday night, and China’s macro-control "policy punches" were frequently struck.
Among the ten policies to expand domestic demand, three involve the real estate market, including reducing transaction taxes and fees, reducing loan interest rates, adjusting down payment ratio, and accelerating the construction of low-rent housing. The goal of policy regulation is very clear, that is, stimulating domestic demand, safeguarding people’s livelihood and preventing economic growth from falling too fast.
Liu Shangxi, deputy director of the Institute of Fiscal Science of the Ministry of Finance, believes that the national policy of reducing taxes and fees on housing transactions has further released the signal of actively adjusting the macro-economy. These policies are aimed not only at producers, such as export-oriented enterprises in coastal areas, but also at consumers. For example, the reduction of taxes and fees on housing transactions will continue to promote exports on the one hand and stimulate domestic demand on the other.
Stimulating real estate consumption is intended to stimulate investment.
As we all know, consumption, investment and export are the "Troika" that drives the rapid development of China’s economy in recent years, and investment plays a very important role in it. However, investment in real estate development accounts for a large proportion of China’s fixed assets investment. In the current situation that economic growth is facing uncertainty and "maintaining growth" has become the main task, macro-control departments hope to stimulate investment by stabilizing the real estate market.
Liu Shangxi said that China’s external demand has shown a downward trend due to the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis and the financial tsunami. For the national economy to maintain a steady growth at a certain speed and replace the slowing export demand, the most practical thing at present is to stimulate domestic demand. Among them, the relationship between the real estate market and its related industries and economic growth is obvious. "Real estate has a strong driving force on the real economy. Therefore, the essence of this national policy to support the property market is to help the real estate industry and the entire industrial chain behind it, such as steel, building materials and cement, to prevent the economy from continuing to decline."
In this policy issued by the Ministry of Finance, there is a statement that "we will continue to increase investment in ensuring people’s livelihood and effectively solve the basic livelihood of low-income people", and it also includes two social security housing policies, which clearly state that the scale of affordable housing construction will be increased, and the "Measures for Qualification Identification of Urban Low-income Families" will be issued recently to standardize the qualification identification of urban low-income families in low-rent housing and affordable housing security and other social assistance work.
Liu Shangxi further stated that the timely introduction of this policy by the central authorities has several positive stimulating effects. First of all, the construction of affordable housing, which was not perfect in China before, has gradually improved, which has become an opportunity to accelerate the construction of the real estate market system; Secondly, in the case of the decline of macroeconomic situation, stimulate market consumption through expansionary fiscal policy; Third, for consumers and low-and middle-income groups who need to buy their own houses, this is also a great advantage to solve their housing problems.
Niu Fengrui, director of the Urban Development and Environment Research Center of China Academy of Social Sciences, also believes that since the end of last year, the real estate market has been light, buyers have a strong wait-and-see mood, and the sluggish housing sales have caused the capital chain of real estate developers to be tense and in danger of breaking. If the real estate capital chain breaks, it will affect the next round of development and cause a series of problems. Therefore, it is necessary to implement a series of policy adjustments to the real estate market to stimulate demand.
Policies make up the gap between purchasing power and housing prices.
In view of the policy warm wind blown by the central government, many market participants simply interpret these measures as the government’s "bailout" of housing prices.
In this regard, Nie Meisheng, president of the Real Estate Chamber of Commerce of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, believes that the word "bailout" is not appropriate, and it should be said that it is a policy adjustment. Last year, the economy was overheated and the liquidity was too strong. This year, the situation has changed and the policy will be adjusted. And policy adjustment, the real estate industry will be among them. Now the so-called "saving" real estate is actually "saving" the economy.
Ni Pengfei, director of the Housing and Real Estate Research Office of the Institute of Finance and Trade, China Academy of Social Sciences, said that he did have this concern before the introduction of the market rumor policy, but after seeing the specific measures of the "New Deal", he felt that there was no need to worry about it. First of all, the policy proposes to increase the construction of social security housing, especially to increase the market supply of low-priced housing. No matter from people’s expectations or the relationship between market supply and demand, there will be no possibility for developers to push up housing prices in the future; Secondly, as expected, the central government stepped in to rescue the real estate industry, indicating that the wait-and-see atmosphere in the market is still very strong. In this case, consumers will not buy up, and buyers will not expect future house prices to be higher than now.
Guo Tianyong, director of the China Banking Research Center of the Central University of Finance and Economics, said that the policy adjustment is mainly aimed at buyers, especially those based on self-occupation demand. However, the deed tax collection standard and credit policy for the purchase of second and above houses with speculation possibility have not been adjusted this time, and the financing policy for real estate developers has not been loosened, which also shows that the intention of the introduction of policies to stimulate economic growth obviously exceeds "saving the market".
In addition, in the first-and second-tier large and medium-sized cities, even though house prices have fallen or stagnated in different degrees in the past period of time, there is still a big gap between their purchasing power and house prices in terms of the ability of those who need to buy houses, which is exactly what this policy is intended to make up.
However, it is difficult to activate the real estate market by relying entirely on favorable policies. Guo Tianyong said: "The data of transaction volume and volume are not good-looking, and the price of the real estate market needs to drop moderately, so that the demand and market can be connected. I think this is also the expectation of the majority of buyers. Under this expectation, the possibility of house prices continuing to fall is greater than the possibility of rising. "
Our Beijing correspondent Yang Xiaoliang
Real estate boss:
Many housing enterprises have achieved record sales this year.
(Reporter/Sun Xiaosu, Xu Jianqiao) Yesterday, at the forum of "Corporate Responsibility and Development in the 30th Anniversary of Reform and Opening-up" sponsored by the Provincial Small and Medium Enterprises Bureau and the Provincial Young Entrepreneurs Association, due to the recent policies of real estate rescue issued by local governments, the expressions of some real estate business leaders who have not appeared for a long time are obviously much easier.
The boss of a large real estate enterprise in Guangzhou said that he sighed every day some time ago, but he couldn’t hide his smile yesterday. "In fact, the income this year is not less than that in the peak period of 2003 and 2004. As far as I know, the sales of many real estate enterprises have reached a new high this year. "He also revealed that his company has reached 3 billion sales this year.
But why are so many real estate companies sad this year? The boss said that in fact, the most important thing is that the psychological impact is relatively large. "In the past few years, the profiteering and extraordinary development of the real estate industry made many enterprises lose themselves and could not help but be impetuous. However, after this storm, some enterprises began to calm down and consider their long-term goals."
The Provincial Housing Society submitted seven suggestions to the provincial government.
Want to break through the "5-year tax limit" of second-hand houses
■ Industry recommendations
(Reporter/Guan Li) On the second day after the announcement of the New Deal, the provincial real estate industry association said that policy suggestions on promoting the healthy development of the real estate market in our province will also be submitted to the provincial government in the near future.
Cai Suisheng, president of the Provincial Housing Association, said that "local governments can formulate fee reduction and exemption policies to encourage housing consumption" in the New Deal of the property market. To a certain extent, this gives all localities room for policy adjustment within their local authority. According to the actual situation of Guangdong market, the Provincial Housing Society put forward seven suggestions-
1 to buy ordinary commercial housing (within 144 square meters of each house) to pay taxes to give different degrees of relief;
2. Encourage cities to adjust ordinary housing standards according to the actual situation;
3. The taxes paid by both parties (both individuals) in the transaction of second-hand ordinary housing shall be reduced or subsidized to different degrees;
4. Second-hand housing transactions are changed from paying business tax and income tax for less than 5 years to being collected for less than 2 years, and the collection is stopped when necessary;
5. Exempt individuals from housing registration fees for purchasing ordinary houses and housing transaction (transfer) fees for buying and selling ordinary houses;
6. Simplify the procedures for housing provident fund loans and speed up the procedures;
7. Encourage second-and third-tier cities to implement the policy of purchasing houses.
■ Market analysis
In the first three quarters, the downward trend of Guangdong real estate market was obvious.
In the third quarter, the sales of commercial housing decreased by 35% year-on-year.
(Reporter/Guan Li) The night before yesterday, the central government introduced a series of measures to "expand domestic demand and stimulate housing consumption", such as cutting interest rates, reducing taxes and reducing down payment. Yesterday, the Analysis Report of Guangdong Real Estate Market in the First Three Quarters of 2008 showed that the performance of Guangdong real estate market declined obviously in the first three quarters of this year, and many major indicators such as the growth of funds in place and the return of funds from sales showed a large decline; The price of commercial housing decreased by 2.07% year-on-year, and the vacancy of housing increased.
Guangdong real estate adjustment is at the forefront.
The report shows that Guangdong’s economic operation slowed down in the first three quarters. Being in the forefront of this round of property market adjustment, Guangdong’s real estate development investment, fixed assets investment and other indexes are lower than the national average. In the first three quarters, Guangdong’s investment in real estate development was 203.372 billion yuan, up 25.82% year-on-year, 5.38 percentage points lower than the national average growth level; The growth rate decreased by 11.71 percentage points year on year.
The growth of funds in place in Guangdong’s real estate market has also declined, and it is obviously difficult to withdraw funds from sales. The shortage of funds has led to a sharp drop in the newly started area. The housing area entering the sales period has shrunk seriously, and the sales amount has dropped sharply. At the same time, the number of vacant houses has increased significantly. Simply put, "no building, no buying, unsalable houses, vacant" has become the biggest feature of the current property market.
Negative growth of sales return funds in the third quarter
In the third quarter, the proportion of completed development investment reached a new low since the same period in 2003, and self-raised funds increased by 30%, the second highest growth rate since the same period in 2003; The negative growth of sales return funds was the first time since the same period in 2003. The area of land purchased by real estate enterprises increased slightly year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by nearly 42 percentage points. In the third quarter, the investment in completed development increased by 25.82% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 11.7 percentage points.
In terms of sales, the sales area and sales amount of commercial housing decreased by 25% and 24% year-on-year, which was the first significant decline since the same period in 2003. Among them, in the third quarter, the sales area and sales amount of commercial housing decreased by more than 30% year-on-year, reaching 33% and 35% respectively.
Editor: Li Xian